日経225オプション裸買投資戦記 – Nikkei 225 Naked Option Warfare – VIX, Macro & Geopolitics
時間的消耗と無関心が利益の源泉である
“Temporal decay and indifference are the source of profit.”
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Originally developed in 2024 to monitor systemic risk, the model extends Black-Scholes with volatility skew, macro-driven decay, and cross-asset interdependencies, creating an index-sensitive option arbitrage framework. Beyond quantitative use, it archives voice, text, and formulas as durable assets to preserve insight through cycles and systemic resets. Coverage: Options, Volatility, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, Gold, FX, Fixed Income, Macro, Geopolitics, Electricity.
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note:
https://note.com/225now/n/nf499cf6b744a
金利・金・地政学──トランプ関税とG7サミットを前に見えてきた債券市場の変調、米国市場と日経平均は何を織り込んでいるのか｜2025/4/20相場雑感
トランプ関税が相場の主役と思いきや、水面下では債券市場に注目が集まる展開に。日米の30年債利回りや債券VIXをもとに独自モデリングを行ったところ、2024年末を境に、日本の債券市場に明確な変化が現れ始めている。一方、米国ではコロナ以降の金融緩和が一服する中、2025年入り後に再びボラティリティが高まりつつある状況。こうした債券市場の不安定さは、安全資産である金（ゴールド）への資金流入を後押し。リスクオン・オフの分岐点として、債券市場の動向が鍵を握る形となっている。6月にはカナダでG7サミット開催を控え、政治的イベントを意識した相場展開も。セクターローテーションが進む中、債券市場の兆候が相場全体の方向性を占う手がかりとなるか。“債券は地味だが本質を映す”——そんな気づきを得た週末となった。__While Trump’s tariff policies appeared to be the main theme driving markets, it’s the bond market that is quietly taking center stage.Using 30-year bond yields and bond volatility indexes (Bond VIX) from both Japan and the U.S., a personal model revealed a noticeable shift in Japan’s bond market since late 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. bonds, which had stabilized after years of post-COVID monetary easing, are once again showing signs of volatility in 2025.This instability in the bond market has prompted a flight to safety, with capital flowing into gold. As a result, the bond market has become a key pivot point for risk-on/risk-off sentiment across global assets.Looking ahead, the G7 Summit in June—set to take place in Canada—adds further political context to market dynamics. With sector rotation still favoring domestic-demand stocks, bond signals could hold the clues to where markets move next.“Bonds may be quiet, but they reflect the core of the market.”That was the key realization from this weekend.
Russia-Ukraine Tensions Flare Up Again — Market Focus Shifts from Tariffs to Geopolitics. With G7 Summit in Canada This June, What’s Next for the Nikkei?| Market Commentary for April 19, 2025
Although Trump tariffs seemed to be the main theme in the market, the Russia-Ukraine issue has flared up again. President Putin announced a temporary 30-hour ceasefire during Easter. There are also reports that a memorandum of understanding on a resource agreement between Ukraine and the United States is close to being signed. The resolution of the Ukraine issue may support a risk-on market. With the G7 Summit scheduled to be held in Canada in June 2025, political considerations may also favor the buyers.___I am Japanese.English Version
ロシア・ウクライナ問題が再燃、関税相場からウ露相場へ。2025年6月はカナダにてG7サミット開催、国際会議を前に日経平均の動向はいかに｜2025/4/19相場雑感
トランプ関税が相場のメインテーマと思いきや、ロシア・ウクライナ問題が再燃。プーチン氏は復活祭で一時30時間の停戦を発表。ウクライナと米国の資源合意の覚書の締結間近報道もあり、ウクライナ問題の解決はリスクオン相場を後押しか。2025年6月にはカナダにてG7サミット開催を控え、政治的な観点からも買い手優勢か。___Although Trump tariffs seemed to be the main theme in the market, the Russia-Ukraine issue has flared up again. President Putin announced a temporary 30-hour ceasefire during Easter. There are also reports that a memorandum of understanding on a resource agreement between Ukraine and the United States is close to being signed. The resolution of the Ukraine issue may support a risk-on market. With the G7 Summit scheduled to be held in Canada in June 2025, political considerations may also favor the buyers.
Nikkei 225 Extends Gains Amid Tariff Talks, Bullish Shift Toward Domestic Stocks Like Retail and Media| Market Commentary for April 18, 2025
The Nikkei 225 continues its upward trend. Investor focus remains on retail and media-related stocks, suggesting a possible sector rotation from export-oriented (external demand) to domestic demand-driven stocks. A rapid and massive capital inflow into domestic sectors could signal the arrival of a bull market centered on domestic demand, potentially aiming to reclaim the July 2024 SQ high. However, it's important to keep in mind the lingering concerns of an economic slowdown, which could weaken both external and domestic demand.___I am Japanese.English Version
日経平均続騰、関税交渉の中、外需株から小売やメディア等の内需株へのセクターローテーションによるブル相場到来も...｜2025/4/18相場雑感
日経平均は上昇継続。小売やメディア関連の物色が続き、外需株から内需株へのセクターローテーションが発生か。外需銘柄からの内需銘柄への急速かつ巨額な資金流入が内需中心のブル相場到来で、日経平均は2024年7月SQ高値の奪還を狙うか。ただし、外需と内需の両翼を失う景気後退懸念が残るのを肝に銘じるべきか。___The Nikkei 225 continues its upward trend. Investor focus remains on retail and media-related stocks, suggesting a possible sector rotation from export-oriented (external demand) to domestic demand-driven stocks. A rapid and massive capital inflow into domestic sectors could signal the arrival of a bull market centered on domestic demand, potentially aiming to reclaim the July 2024 SQ high. However, it's important to keep in mind the lingering concerns of an economic slowdown, which could weaken both external and domestic demand.
Smiles from Trump & Akazawa Lift Nikkei — No FX Talk, Risk-On Returns? | Market Commentary on April 17, 2025
In the early hours of today (Japan time), Minister Akazawa and President Trump held negotiations on reciprocal tariffs.While the detailed contents remain undisclosed, the market seems to have responded positively to the smiling photo of President Trump and Minister Akazawa.With no apparent demands regarding foreign exchange, the yen weakened, potentially signaling a risk-on market with a weaker yen and rising Japanese stocks.Attention now turns to whether money flowing out of historically high gold and U.S. stocks can be absorbed into Japanese equities.___I am Japanese.English Version
トランプ大統領と赤沢大臣のスマイルショットを市場が好感？日経平均は上昇で反応、為替に関する要求なく円安株高のリスクオン相場再来か｜2025/4/17相場雑感
日本時間で本日早朝に赤沢大臣とトランプ大統領が相互関税に関して交渉。詳細な内容は明かされないものの、トランプ大統領と赤沢大臣のスマイルショットを市場が好感か。為替の要求等はなく、円安方向に反応し、円安株高のリスクオン相場が到来するか。歴史的高値の金や米国株からの流出マネーを日本株で吸収できるか注目。___In the early hours of today (Japan time), Minister Akazawa and President Trump held negotiations on reciprocal tariffs.While the detailed contents remain undisclosed, the market seems to have responded positively to the smiling photo of President Trump and Minister Akazawa.With no apparent demands regarding foreign exchange, the yen weakened, potentially signaling a risk-on market with a weaker yen and rising Japanese stocks.Attention now turns to whether money flowing out of historically high gold and U.S. stocks can be absorbed into Japanese equities.
Minister Akazawa’s Team Arrives in Washington to Negotiate End of Trump Tariffs — Nikkei Stuck in Tired Range, Is It Time for the Covered Time Strategy? | Market Commentary on April 16, 2025
The Nikkei 225 appears somewhat fatigued ahead of the upcoming negotiations between Treasury Secretary Bessent and the Japanese delegation regarding the Trump-era tariffs. Both buyers and sellers are in a standoff as the event draws near. The delegation arrived in Washington early this morning, and negotiations are set to begin on the morning of the 17th Japan time. The key point to watch is whether any information will be released before the market opens at 9:00 AM. This state of stagnation might be an opportunity to employ the Covered Time strategy.___I am Japanese.English Version
赤沢大臣率いるトランプ関税の撤廃を目指す交渉団は本日未明にワシントン到着。日経平均は疲れ気味の膠着状態、今こそカバード・タイム戦略か｜2025/4/16相場雑感
日経平均はベッセント財務長官と日本の交渉団によるトランプ関税をめぐる交渉を前にしてやや疲れ気味の状態。イベントを前に売り買いともに膠着状態。本日未明にワシントンに到着し、日本時間の17日朝から交渉開始。9時の寄り付き前に情報が出るか否かが注目。この膠着状態をカバード・タイム戦略で乗るか。___The Nikkei 225 appears somewhat fatigued ahead of the upcoming negotiations between Treasury Secretary Bessent and the Japanese delegation regarding the Trump-era tariffs. Both buyers and sellers are in a standoff as the event draws near. The delegation arrived in Washington early this morning, and negotiations are set to begin on the morning of the 17th Japan time. The key point to watch is whether any information will be released before the market opens at 9:00 AM. This state of stagnation might be an opportunity to employ the Covered Time strategy.
U.S.-Japan Meeting Led by Treasury Secretary Bessent on April 17 — A New Bretton Woods? Nikkei Moves Quietly in a Cautious, Uncertain Mood | Market Commentary on April 15, 2025
On April 17, 2025, Japan’s Minister Akazawa and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet to discuss Trump tariffs and USD/JPY policy.Global markets are watching closely, and the Nikkei seems to be in wait-and-see mode.There’s also a sense that buying energy has been exhausted—creating an eerie atmosphere.___I am Japanese.English Version
4月17日にベッセント財務長官主導で日米会談、ブレトンウッズ体制の再編か。日経平均は様子見姿勢の小幅な動きがやや不気味か｜2025/4/15相場雑感
2025年4月17日に日本の赤沢大臣とベッセント財務長官がトランプ関税やドル円政策に関して会談。世界は本会談に注目し、日経平均含めマーケットは様子見姿勢か。買いのエネルギーが消耗されてる感覚もあり、やや不気味な状況。___On April 17, 2025, Japan’s Minister Akazawa and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet to discuss Trump tariffs and USD/JPY policy.Global markets are watching closely, and the Nikkei seems to be in wait-and-see mode.There’s also a sense that buying energy has been exhausted—creating an eerie atmosphere.
Ray Dalio Warns of Recession, Goldman Targets $4,500 Gold? Nikkei Rises Slightly as EPS Momentum Recovers — Too Early to Call a Recession? | Market Commentary April 14, 2025
Short-seller and investor Ray Dalio has expressed concerns about a possible recession, while Goldman Sachs raised its bullish target for gold to $4,500 due to rising uncertainty. Despite these bearish announcements about the global economy, the EPS momentum of the Nikkei is showing signs of recovery. It may still be too early to say a recession is certain.___I am Japanese.This English version.
レイ・ダリオ氏が景気後退懸念、ゴールドマンは金4,500ドル目標？日経平均は小幅上昇も日経EPSモメンタムが回復基調、景気後退判断は時期尚早か｜2025/4/14相場雑感
空売り投資家で有名なレイ・ダリオ氏が景気後退懸念を示し、ゴールドマンは不確実性の観点から金の強気シナリオにおける目標価格を4,500ドルに引き上げる等、世界経済への弱気アナウンスメントが複数公表。しかし、日経EPSモメンタムは回復基調であり、景気後退を決定づけるの時期尚早か。
Nikkei 100,000 by 2030? Could a New Plaza Accord Spark a Japanese Stock Market Bubble—With the BOJ as the Missing Piece? | Market Commentary, April 13, 2025
Over the weekend, a dovish shift in Trump’s tariff stance sent the Sunday Dow and Sunday DAX soaring—echoing the vibes of a new “Plaza Accord.” Could this spark a second coming of the Japanese stock market bubble?But one critical piece is still missing: the Bank of Japan’s dovish posture.Markets move without mercy. They may first pressure the BOJ into a rate hike, engineer a yen-driven recession, and then force the BOJ back into easing. This sequence could unlock the ultimate setup for a historic bull market in Japan.The question is—are we positioned to ride that narrative?___I am Japanese.This is English version.
2030年日経平均10万円？新・プラザ合意の先に待つ日本株バブル再来に不可欠なピースは日銀の姿勢か｜2025/4/13相場雑感
週末、トランプ関税に対して緩和的な姿勢が示され、サンデーダウやサンデーダックスは猛反発。まるで“新・プラザ合意”のような展開が、日本株バブルの再来を予感させる。だが、バブル再来にはまだ“ひとつ足りないピース”がある。それが「日本銀行の緩和的姿勢」だ。常に無慈悲に動くマーケットは、まず利上げを促し、その先に円高不況を形成。結果的に、日銀に緩和を“強いざるを得ない”状況をつくるかもしれない。この金融ストーリーの中で、我々はどう乗るか。___Over the weekend, a dovish shift in Trump’s tariff stance sent the Sunday Dow and Sunday DAX soaring—echoing the vibes of a new “Plaza Accord.” Could this spark a second coming of the Japanese stock market bubble?But one critical piece is still missing: the Bank of Japan’s dovish posture.Markets move without mercy. They may first pressure the BOJ into a rate hike, engineer a yen-driven recession, and then force the BOJ back into easing. This sequence could unlock the ultimate setup for a historic bull market in Japan.The question is—are we positioned to ride that narrative?
Is the New Plaza Accord the Rebirth of 'Japan as No.1'? Predicting the Return of the Nikkei 225’s Golden Era After the Crash | Market Commentary, April 12, 2025
Following the Trump Tariff Crash, we dare to envision a scenario for the Nikkei's golden age to return.Could a "New Plaza Accord" spark an equity story for Japanese stocks reminiscent of the "Japan as No.1" era?Japanese multinationals with global footprints remain resilient even amid yen appreciation, while domestic demand-driven firms may benefit from the stronger currency through improved earnings.Currency strength also helps tame inflation, while pre-upper house election stimulus measures—such as cash handouts and tax breaks—could support weakened consumer sentiment.Structural factors like wage pressures and the acceleration of the inheritance cycle may further boost consumption.With the Bank of Japan gradually tightening, we explore the potential for a rare convergence of a stronger yen, rising equities, and firming bonds.___I am Japanese.This is English version.
新・プラザ合意は“Japan as No.1”の再来か？暴落後の今こそ日経平均の黄金期復活を読む｜2025/4/12 相場雑感
トランプ関税による大暴落があった今、あえて日経平均黄金期復活のシナリオを予想。新・プラザ合意は“Japan as No.1”を再来させる日本株へのエクイティストーリーを生むか。海外拠点を整備した大企業は円高下でも強く、内需企業は円高恩恵で好業績？足元インフレも通貨高により抑制し、参議院選挙を見据えたカンフル経済施策が弱った消費マインドを下支えする。賃金上昇圧力や相続サイクルの本格化も消費を強化か？日銀の緩やかな利上げもあり、円高・株高・債券高の可能性を示唆。___Following the Trump Tariff Crash, we dare to envision a scenario for the Nikkei's golden age to return.Could a "New Plaza Accord" spark an equity story for Japanese stocks reminiscent of the "Japan as No.1" era?Japanese multinationals with global footprints remain resilient even amid yen appreciation, while domestic demand-driven firms may benefit from the stronger currency through improved earnings.Currency strength also helps tame inflation, while pre-upper house election stimulus measures—such as cash handouts and tax breaks—could support weakened consumer sentiment.Structural factors like wage pressures and the acceleration of the inheritance cycle may further boost consumption.With the Bank of Japan gradually tightening, we explore the potential for a rare convergence of a stronger yen, rising equities, and firming bonds.
Gold Breaks Above $3,200 – A Sign of a Peak? As Earnings Season Begins, Market Gets Used to Trump Policies; Nikkei May Shift to Risk-On Mode – Market Thoughts for April 11, 2025
Gold surpasses $3,200, sparking whispers of the "Gold Safe Haven Myth," but momentum may be hitting its limit. The divergence in momentum between gold and the S&P is widening, raising the possibility of a capital reversal back into equities. Although the Trump tariffs caused significant market turmoil, remarks about potential tax cuts are reportedly leaking from President Trump. In Japan, there is also talk of cash payments ahead of the House of Councillors election, suggesting a possible shift toward a risk-on market scenario. Attention is on whether sector rotation driven by domestic-demand stocks could lead to a combination of yen appreciation and rising stock prices.___I am Japanese.This is English version.
金が3,200ドルを突破も天井示唆？決算シーズン突入しトランプ相場に慣れ、日経平均は一転リスクオン相場の可能性も_2025/4/11相場雑感
金が3,200ドルを突破し、金安全神話がささやかれるもモメンタムは限界か。S＆Pとのモメンタム乖離も大きく、株式への資金巻き戻しの可能性も。トランプ関税で大荒れしたものの、減税発言がトランプ大統領から漏れ出しており、日本では参議院選挙前の現金支給の話題もあることから、一転してリスクオン相場になるシナリオも想定。内需株によるセクターローテーションが円高株高を生むか注目。___Gold surpasses $3,200, sparking whispers of the "Gold Safe Haven Myth," but momentum may be hitting its limit. The divergence in momentum between gold and the S&P is widening, raising the possibility of a capital reversal back into equities. Although the Trump tariffs caused significant market turmoil, remarks about potential tax cuts are reportedly leaking from President Trump. In Japan, there is also talk of cash payments ahead of the House of Councillors election, suggesting a possible shift toward a risk-on market scenario. Attention is on whether sector rotation driven by domestic-demand stocks could lead to a combination of yen appreciation and rising stock prices.
UNIQLO Announces Earnings H2 Profit Forecast Lowered by 2–3%. Is the Nikkei 225 Capped at 35,000 Due to Trump Tariffs? Is Trump's True Aim a New Plaza Accord? – Eve Market Commentary, April 10, 2025
Fast Retailing, which owns UNIQLO, has announced its financial results. While expressing doubts about the continuity of Trump's tariffs, it forecasts a 2-3% drop in second-half profits. Even if all the stocks in the Nikkei 225 were at this level, a PER of 15 would mean the Nikkei's upside would be 35,000 yen. In that case, there would be almost no upside and stocks would be impossible to buy. Are President Trump's series of actions a strategy to weaken the dollar in order to rebuild the United States? Attention is focused on a new Plaza Accord.___*I am Japanese. This is English version.
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