マネー・ショート、マイケル・バーリに憧れ、深く日経オプションの世界に足を踏み入れた自分。その熱い情熱と探求心を形にするため、未来の自分に向けた"日記"を綴る。日経225(NI225)、S&P500(SPX)、金(Gold)、ドル円(USDJPY)、ビットコイン(BTC)、国債。多角的な視点からこれらを分析し、日々の相場観を記録。膨大なチャートに頼ることなく、Excelを駆使した緻密なモデリングと独自の手法で市場の本質を解き明かす。過去、現在、そして未来の相場の軌跡を紐解いていく物語*1.3〜1.5倍速推奨。
___
Inspired by "The Big Short" and Michael Burry, I ventured deeply into the world of Nikkei options with passion and an insatiable curiosity. As a reflection of my relentless pursuit, I write this "journal" as a message to my future self. My core indicators are IV, PER, EPS, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Time — used to model market behavior.
Instinct or Logic, Cycle or Model — Can the Nikkei’s Bull Run Be Trusted Ahead of the BOJ Policy Meeting? | Market Commentary for April 27, 2025
The Nikkei 225 shows strength, fueled by foreign capital inflows.But ahead lie the monetary policy meeting, tariff negotiations, and the new moon.While models (logic) suggest a risk-on environment,the cycles (instinct) still signal risk-off.Which of these conflicting signals will prove right?Should we trust logic or instinct?Is this market move a trap, or is it the real thing?___I am Japanese.English Version.
本能か理性か、サイクルかモデルか──日銀の金融政策会合前、日経平均のブル相場は信じられるか？｜2025/4/27 相場雑感
海外マネーが流入し、強さを見せる日経平均。しかし、目前には金融政策決定会合、関税交渉、そして新月が控えています。モデル（理性）はリスクオンを示唆する一方で、サイクル（本能）は依然としてリスクオフの兆し。この相反するサインはどちらがただしいか。理性と本能、どちらを信じるべきなのか？市場の罠を張ったか、本物か。___The Nikkei 225 shows strength, fueled by foreign capital inflows.But ahead lie the monetary policy meeting, tariff negotiations, and the new moon.While models (logic) suggest a risk-on environment,the cycles (instinct) still signal risk-off.Which of these conflicting signals will prove right?Should we trust logic or instinct?Is this market move a trap, or is it the real thing?
Nikkei’s Recovery Rally: Trump Tariffs Priced In, G20 Passed — Will Optimism Last Before the BOJ?｜Market Commentary for April 25, 2025
The Nikkei 225 continued its recovery rally, closing 1.9% higher from the previous day. Markets seem to have already priced in Trump’s tariffs, and the G20 summit passed without issue. The next key events are the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on April 30 and Governor Ueda’s press conference on May 1. Meanwhile, optimism is spreading across the market. But will this optimistic mood continue?___ I am Japanese. English version.
トランプ関税を織り込んだように見える日経平均は回復ラリー、G20を通過し、残るは金融政策決定会合、楽観ムードは継続するか｜2025/4/25 相場雑感
日経平均は前日比1.9%高と回復ラリーを継続。市場はトランプ関税をすでに織り込んだように見え、G20サミットも無事通過。次なる注目イベントは、4月30日の金融政策決定会合と5月1日の植田総裁会見。一方で、市場は楽観ムードが広がっている状況。果たしてこの楽観ムードは続くのか──。___The Nikkei 225 continued its recovery rally, closing 1.9% higher from the previous day. Markets seem to have already priced in Trump’s tariffs, and the G20 summit passed without issue. The next key events are the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on April 30 and Governor Ueda’s press conference on May 1. Meanwhile, optimism is spreading across the market. But will this optimistic mood continue?
Treasury Secretary Bensent and Minister Kato to Meet Late at Night Japan Time — Calm Before the Storm? Shaky Bond Markets and the Unreadable Nikkei｜Market Commentary for April 24, 2025
Today’s focus is the meeting between Minister Kato and Treasury Secretary Bensent, scheduled for late at night Japan time. Is this the calm before the storm? While stock prices show a slight recovery, the bond market remains unstable, and the outlook for both Japan and the U.S. is uncertain. There are also reports of a conflict between Secretary Bensent and Elon Musk, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the market. Additionally, with the new moon approaching, attention is on how this will affect the market’s rhythm.___I am Japanese.English version.
ベッセント財務長官と加藤大臣が日本時間深夜に会談、嵐の前の静けさか──揺れる債券市場と読み解けない日経平均の行方｜2025/4/24 相場雑感
本日は、日本時間深夜に予定されている 加藤大臣とベッセント財務長官の会談。嵐の前の静けさか。株価はわずかに回復基調も債券市場は依然として不安定。日米ともに先行き不透明。ベッセント財務長官とマスク氏の対立構造も報道され、新たな不確実性が発生。また、新月のタイミングと重なることで、市場のリズムがどのように変化するか注目。___Today’s focus is the meeting between Minister Kato and Treasury Secretary Bensent, scheduled for late at night Japan time. Is this the calm before the storm? While stock prices show a slight recovery, the bond market remains unstable, and the outlook for both Japan and the U.S. is uncertain. There are also reports of a conflict between Secretary Bensent and Elon Musk, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the market. Additionally, with the new moon approaching, attention is on how this will affect the market’s rhythm.
The Invisible War Over Capital Flows — Challenging a Financial System That Devalues Labor and the Future of Humanity: What Is Trump Fighting to Restore?| Market Commentary for April 23, 2025
An economy that devalues labor and inflates capital through money games. The market, which has served as a life-support system for this structure, is something everyone senses is broken, yet no one dares to touch. But now, an anomaly has appeared—Donald Trump. He is attempting to unite real capital and intangible capital to break down the fortress of financial capital. His moves are unreadable. The internal conflicts within his administration, the dovish remarks—these are all fake moves designed to lull his enemies into a false sense of security. The market is now a battlefield. Capital collides, ideologies are shaken. This geopolitical struggle of capital may transcend mere numbers; it could be a war that questions the future of humanity itself.History repeats. The Industrial Revolution, financial capitalism, neoliberalism—each time, labor has been undervalued while capital swells. Short-term gains overshadow long-term value, and the art of building something slowly, over time, is forgotten. That structure is now reaching its limits.___I am Japanese.English Version.
見えざる資本の流れを巡る戦争──労働と人類の未来を軽視する金融システムへの挑戦、トランプ大統領は何と戦い、何を取り戻すのか｜2025/4/23 相場雑感
経済、労働価値を軽視し、マネーゲームで資本を肥大化させる仕組み。その延命装置として機能してきた市場は、誰もが薄々気づきながらも手を出せずにきた構造だった。しかし、トランプという異物が現れた。実物資本と無形資本を結びつけ、金融資本の牙城を崩そうとしている。その動きは読ませない。政権内の対立も、緩和的な発言も、すべては敵を油断させるためのフェイクムーブ。マーケットは今、戦場だ。資本がぶつかり合い、思想が揺さぶられる。この資本地政学の闘いは、単なる数字の世界を超えて、人類の未来そのものを問う戦争かもしれない。歴史は繰り返す。産業革命、金融資本主義、新自由主義──そのたびに、労働は過小評価され、資本は肥大化してきた。短期の利益が長期の価値を凌駕し、時間をかけて何かを築き上げることは忘れ去られる。その構造が限界を迎えようとしている。___An economy that devalues labor and inflates capital through money games. The market, which has served as a life-support system for this structure, is something everyone senses is broken, yet no one dares to touch. But now, an anomaly has appeared—Donald Trump. He is attempting to unite real capital and intangible capital to break down the fortress of financial capital. His moves are unreadable. The internal conflicts within his administration, the dovish remarks—these are all fake moves designed to lull his enemies into a false sense of security. The market is now a battlefield. Capital collides, ideologies are shaken. This geopolitical struggle of capital may transcend mere numbers; it could be a war that questions the future of humanity itself.History repeats. The Industrial Revolution, financial capitalism, neoliberalism—each time, labor has been undervalued while capital swells. Short-term gains overshadow long-term value, and the art of building something slowly, over time, is forgotten. That structure is now reaching its limits.
Fed Control Crumbling — Is it time to rewrite the old Excel file of global markets?| Market Commentary for April 22, 2025
In 1971, the gold standard ended, and the Federal Reserve gained true control over money creation.For the next 50 years, the global economy has been sustained by this life-support system called the Fed.But now, that control is starting to break down.It’s like an old, overly complicated Excel file—no one fully understands how it works, but everyone keeps using it because they’re afraid to rebuild it.The limit of this system may be near.___I am Japanese. English Version.
FRB支配の崩壊 ──金本位制終了から続いた市場延命は終わるのか？ 連邦準備制度は今や古いエクセルか｜2025/4/22 相場雑感
1971年、金本位制が終了し、FRBが本当の通貨発行権を手に入れた。それから50年──世界経済はFRBという延命装置によって支配されてきた。だが今、その支配が崩れ始めている。それは、過去の複雑化したExcelファイルのようなもの。誰も中身を理解していないが、壊れると困るから使い続けている。その限界は近いか。___In 1971, the gold standard ended, and the Federal Reserve gained true control over money creation.For the next 50 years, the global economy has been sustained by this life-support system called the Fed.But now, that control is starting to break down.It’s like an old, overly complicated Excel file—no one fully understands how it works, but everyone keeps using it because they’re afraid to rebuild it.The limit of this system may be near.
Is Trump’s Great Reset the end of the Fed’s life support? The fall of Ranieri’s financial capitalism and the return of the old economy?| Market Commentary for April 22, 2025
In the early hours of April 22, 2025 (Japan time), the U.S. market plunged. The S&P 500 dropped by 2.36%, while the VIX and MOVE indexes surged. Interest rates and credit default swaps (CDS) also climbed sharply.Meanwhile, former President Trump is reportedly considering firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.The Fed has long served as a life-support system for the U.S. economy—using monetary easing and rate cuts to prolong economic expansions. Combined with the securitization revolution that transformed traditional banking, this entire "extension structure" may now be under threat.Is this the true face of Trump’s “Great American Reset”—a radical break from financial capitalism and a push to dismantle the system built by the likes of Louis Ranieri?Gold, Bitcoin, and the revival of the old economy—could this be the turning point for an economic order long dominated by entrenched financial elites?___I am Japanese.English version.
パウエル解任危機──延命機関FRBを失った米国経済こそが、トランプが目指すグレートリセットか。ルイス・ラニエリが構築した金融資本経済の破壊は、オールドエコノミー復活への道なのか｜2025/4/22 相場雑感
2025年4月22日日本時間の深夜、米国市場が急落。S&P500は-2.36%、VIXとMOVEは急騰、金利とCDSも上昇。一方で、トランプ大統領がパウエルFRB議長の解任を検討。アメリカ経済を延命してきたFRBの役割、証券化によって変質した銀行ビジネス、そしてその延命構造そのものを破壊するのがトランプの「グレート・アメリカン・リセット」か。金・ビットコイン・オールドエコノミー──既得権によって支配された経済は、いま大きな転換点を迎えるか。___In the early hours of April 22, 2025 (Japan time), the U.S. market plunged. The S&P 500 dropped by 2.36%, while the VIX and MOVE indexes surged. Interest rates and credit default swaps (CDS) also climbed sharply.Meanwhile, former President Trump is reportedly considering firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.The Fed has long served as a life-support system for the U.S. economy—using monetary easing and rate cuts to prolong economic expansions. Combined with the securitization revolution that transformed traditional banking, this entire "extension structure" may now be under threat.Is this the true face of Trump’s “Great American Reset”—a radical break from financial capitalism and a push to dismantle the system built by the likes of Louis Ranieri?Gold, Bitcoin, and the revival of the old economy—could this be the turning point for an economic order long dominated by entrenched financial elites?
Russian Airstrikes Resume, Trump Tariffs Pressure Businesses, and Gold Surges — Nikkei Falls Ahead of BOJ as Global Markets Close| Market Commentary for April 20, 2025
On April 21, 2025, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.3% from the previous day.As the impact of Trump’s tariffs on corporate activity began to surface, geopolitical tensions flared up again with Russia resuming airstrikes.Concerns in the bond market remain unresolved, driving gold prices up sharply toward the $3,400 level as investors seek safety.With most major global markets closed for the day, Japan’s market moved in a risk-off mood.The key level of 34,000 yen is now being tested, and attention is turning to whether the U.S. market can bounce back amid this uncertainty.With the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting and scheduled talks between BOJ and government officials, today became a moment to calmly assess what the market is starting to price in.___I am Japanese.English Version.
ロシアの空爆再開、企業活動に影を落とすトランプ関税──債券不安は続き金が暴騰。日銀会合を前に日経反落、各国休場の中で米国市場は反転できるか｜2025/4/21 相場雑感
2025年4月21日、日経平均は前日比1.3%安と反落。トランプ関税による企業活動への影響が顕在化し始める中、ロシアの空爆再開によって地政学リスクが再燃。債券市場の不安は解消されず、安全資産としての金は3,400ドル台に迫る暴騰。多くの主要国市場が休場となる中、日本市場はややリスクオフのムードで推移。34,000円の攻防が焦点となる中、注目は米国市場がこの不安定な状況を跳ね返す展開を見せるかどうか。日銀の政策決定会合や政府関係者との面会を控えたタイミングで、マーケットが何を織り込み始めているのかを冷静に見極める1日となった。___On April 21, 2025, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.3% from the previous day.As the impact of Trump’s tariffs on corporate activity began to surface, geopolitical tensions flared up again with Russia resuming airstrikes.Concerns in the bond market remain unresolved, driving gold prices up sharply toward the $3,400 level as investors seek safety.With most major global markets closed for the day, Japan’s market moved in a risk-off mood.The key level of 34,000 yen is now being tested, and attention is turning to whether the U.S. market can bounce back amid this uncertainty.With the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting and scheduled talks between BOJ and government officials, today became a moment to calmly assess what the market is starting to price in.
Interest, Gold & Geopolitics — What the Bond Market Signals Ahead of Tariffs & G7: How Are U.S. Markets and Nikkei 225 Reacting? | Market Commentary for April 20, 2025
While Trump’s tariff policies appeared to be the main theme driving markets, it’s the bond market that is quietly taking center stage.Using 30-year bond yields and bond volatility indexes (Bond VIX) from both Japan and the U.S., a personal model revealed a noticeable shift in Japan’s bond market since late 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. bonds, which had stabilized after years of post-COVID monetary easing, are once again showing signs of volatility in 2025.This instability in the bond market has prompted a flight to safety, with capital flowing into gold. As a result, the bond market has become a key pivot point for risk-on/risk-off sentiment across global assets.Looking ahead, the G7 Summit in June—set to take place in Canada—adds further political context to market dynamics. With sector rotation still favoring domestic-demand stocks, bond signals could hold the clues to where markets move next.“Bonds may be quiet, but they reflect the core of the market.”That was the key realization from this weekend.___I am Japanese.This is English version.
金利・金・地政学──トランプ関税とG7サミットを前に見えてきた債券市場の変調、米国市場と日経平均は何を織り込んでいるのか｜2025/4/20相場雑感
トランプ関税が相場の主役と思いきや、水面下では債券市場に注目が集まる展開に。日米の30年債利回りや債券VIXをもとに独自モデリングを行ったところ、2024年末を境に、日本の債券市場に明確な変化が現れ始めている。一方、米国ではコロナ以降の金融緩和が一服する中、2025年入り後に再びボラティリティが高まりつつある状況。こうした債券市場の不安定さは、安全資産である金（ゴールド）への資金流入を後押し。リスクオン・オフの分岐点として、債券市場の動向が鍵を握る形となっている。6月にはカナダでG7サミット開催を控え、政治的イベントを意識した相場展開も。セクターローテーションが進む中、債券市場の兆候が相場全体の方向性を占う手がかりとなるか。“債券は地味だが本質を映す”——そんな気づきを得た週末となった。__While Trump’s tariff policies appeared to be the main theme driving markets, it’s the bond market that is quietly taking center stage.Using 30-year bond yields and bond volatility indexes (Bond VIX) from both Japan and the U.S., a personal model revealed a noticeable shift in Japan’s bond market since late 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. bonds, which had stabilized after years of post-COVID monetary easing, are once again showing signs of volatility in 2025.This instability in the bond market has prompted a flight to safety, with capital flowing into gold. As a result, the bond market has become a key pivot point for risk-on/risk-off sentiment across global assets.Looking ahead, the G7 Summit in June—set to take place in Canada—adds further political context to market dynamics. With sector rotation still favoring domestic-demand stocks, bond signals could hold the clues to where markets move next.“Bonds may be quiet, but they reflect the core of the market.”That was the key realization from this weekend.
Russia-Ukraine Tensions Flare Up Again — Market Focus Shifts from Tariffs to Geopolitics. With G7 Summit in Canada This June, What’s Next for the Nikkei?| Market Commentary for April 19, 2025
Although Trump tariffs seemed to be the main theme in the market, the Russia-Ukraine issue has flared up again. President Putin announced a temporary 30-hour ceasefire during Easter. There are also reports that a memorandum of understanding on a resource agreement between Ukraine and the United States is close to being signed. The resolution of the Ukraine issue may support a risk-on market. With the G7 Summit scheduled to be held in Canada in June 2025, political considerations may also favor the buyers.___I am Japanese.English Version
ロシア・ウクライナ問題が再燃、関税相場からウ露相場へ。2025年6月はカナダにてG7サミット開催、国際会議を前に日経平均の動向はいかに｜2025/4/19相場雑感
トランプ関税が相場のメインテーマと思いきや、ロシア・ウクライナ問題が再燃。プーチン氏は復活祭で一時30時間の停戦を発表。ウクライナと米国の資源合意の覚書の締結間近報道もあり、ウクライナ問題の解決はリスクオン相場を後押しか。2025年6月にはカナダにてG7サミット開催を控え、政治的な観点からも買い手優勢か。___Although Trump tariffs seemed to be the main theme in the market, the Russia-Ukraine issue has flared up again. President Putin announced a temporary 30-hour ceasefire during Easter. There are also reports that a memorandum of understanding on a resource agreement between Ukraine and the United States is close to being signed. The resolution of the Ukraine issue may support a risk-on market. With the G7 Summit scheduled to be held in Canada in June 2025, political considerations may also favor the buyers.
Nikkei 225 Extends Gains Amid Tariff Talks, Bullish Shift Toward Domestic Stocks Like Retail and Media| Market Commentary for April 18, 2025
The Nikkei 225 continues its upward trend. Investor focus remains on retail and media-related stocks, suggesting a possible sector rotation from export-oriented (external demand) to domestic demand-driven stocks. A rapid and massive capital inflow into domestic sectors could signal the arrival of a bull market centered on domestic demand, potentially aiming to reclaim the July 2024 SQ high. However, it's important to keep in mind the lingering concerns of an economic slowdown, which could weaken both external and domestic demand.___I am Japanese.English Version
日経平均続騰、関税交渉の中、外需株から小売やメディア等の内需株へのセクターローテーションによるブル相場到来も...｜2025/4/18相場雑感
日経平均は上昇継続。小売やメディア関連の物色が続き、外需株から内需株へのセクターローテーションが発生か。外需銘柄からの内需銘柄への急速かつ巨額な資金流入が内需中心のブル相場到来で、日経平均は2024年7月SQ高値の奪還を狙うか。ただし、外需と内需の両翼を失う景気後退懸念が残るのを肝に銘じるべきか。___The Nikkei 225 continues its upward trend. Investor focus remains on retail and media-related stocks, suggesting a possible sector rotation from export-oriented (external demand) to domestic demand-driven stocks. A rapid and massive capital inflow into domestic sectors could signal the arrival of a bull market centered on domestic demand, potentially aiming to reclaim the July 2024 SQ high. However, it's important to keep in mind the lingering concerns of an economic slowdown, which could weaken both external and domestic demand.
Also Recommended
英語で雑談！Kevin’s English Room Podcast
Tiktok/YouTube で活動中のKevin’s English Room のケビンと山ちゃん(英語勉強中)が英語で雑談するチャンネル。ほとんど英語なので、スピードラーニング的な感じで、ナチュラルな英会話に耳を慣らすのに役立てればと思って始めました！ 【番組お便りの送り先】 https://forms.gle/ALs6fH5VdaZq6niG7 Tiktok:@kevinthepepperoni ・ YouTube: Kevin's English Room ・ Instagram:@kevinsenroom ・ Twitter:@kevinsenroom
一日一配
声の日記。自分の声で日記を書く、LISTENならではのポッドキャスト。
jkondoの朝の散歩
ポッドキャストプラットフォーム「LISTEN」や、GPSトラッキングサービス「IBUKI」、物件メディア「物件ファン」、京都の宿とコワーキング施設「UNKNOWN KYOTO」を運営する近藤淳也（jkondo）が、朝の散歩をしたりしながら、日々の出来事や考えたことを語ります。
@narumi のつぶやき
声低おじさんの独り言 お便り募集中 https://forms.gle/mFNwFusdE6eszbMU6
LISTEN NEWS
LISTENからの最新情報をお届けする公式ポッドキャストです。
オカンの話なんて誰が聞くん？
運転しながら頭の中を垂れ流し ※音質わるいです🙇🏼♀️