AIと雇用の未来
Hi, This is Yaho. I'm a Macro Option Trader. Today is August 14, 2025, 8-7pm Japan time.
This is not so much a market review as it a look ahead at what happens when AI keep growing, jobs keep shrinking, and we enter what I call the era of mass unemployment.
I want to talk about what kinds of services, companies, and stocks will matter most in that world.
Right now, thanks to open AI and all kinds of AI tools, we are seeing more and more automation and big corporate layoffs.
Unemployment is going to climb, but company profit will likely surge because radicals drop.
The big question is, in that kind of economy, what's going to grow? I see three big themes.
First, the obvious one. The more AI spreads, the lower personal costs go, and stronger corporate earnings get, but governments won't just eat shitbuck.
This probably lies corporate tax. Take part of that extra profit and use it to fund things like basic income to keep society in stability, social instability.
Second, how do we feel the jobs AI take away? Most reports suggest 4 and 6% of workers could be replaced by AI.
The ideal unemployment rate is around 2%, so we need to find work for about 4% of the workforce.
One way is through the creator economy. AI will make it easy for individuals to produce high-quality contents.
You will create something, AI will polish it, and you can turn it into a service or product. I think this could cover about half of the gap, largely 2%.
The other half could come from what I call present employment.
Even when things are automated, self-driving taxi, unmanned convenience store, automated logistics, there are still places where people feel safer if a human is there.
Think of someone sitting in the driver's seat of an automated truck or bus, or guarding a fully automated building.
The job is basically to be there, to monitor and provide reassurance. That has value.
So, in my view, there are three big investment themes for the AI era.
AIの3つの柱
One, essentials like copper and water and semiconductors, and this is AI infrastructure.
Two, the creator economy, new opportunities for individuals to make a living.
Three, present employment, jobs that exist simply because people feel better.
This could help balance the job losses AI creates and keep society from breaking down.
Sure, there's a dormant gloom scenario where AI destroys jobs and society collapses, but I think with the right mix of creative opportunities and human presence laws, we'll find a way through.
So, what do you think? What kind of AI-driven future are you picturing?
I'll keep talking about the kind of stocks and infrastructure that will matter most in this AI new era.
That's it for today. If you like this kind of content, hit follow. Think of it like taking a long bet on my ideas.
See you tomorrow.
