市場の現状とイラン情勢の影響
Hi, This is Yaho. I'm a Macro Option Trader. Todayis April 11, 2026, and it's 11.14pm Japan time.
Let's take a look back at the market.
First, Nikkei. The Friday closed was 56,924 yen,and the SQ price came in at 56,573, so overall, itsettled at a pretty high level.
Last SQ was 52,909 yen, so we're up about 35,000to 36,000 yen. We did not break above the FebruarySQ level of 57,000, but still, this is a strongoutcome.
Now about the Middle East. There are signs of aceasefire and easing tensions with Iran, whichhelped calm the market. We are watching for escalation, but for now, things have settled down.
Of course, it could flare up again anytime, but atthis moment, the market is taking it positively.
Variety has come down as well. The Variety Indexis at 32.61, and the Nikkei PEO is at 20.42. EVNhas recovered to around 27.87 yen.
So overall, the market is clearly in a recoveryphase. There was no major shock this time, no realbreakdown, no panic, so I'd say this event isbasically no count.
USDJPY is around 159, still moving in the weakeryen direction. Japan's 30-year yield is up to 3.59%, so the bond market is still a bit unstable, butequities in Japan are holding strong.
Looking at the U.S., S&P is at 6817 point. X isdown to 19.23. Moving index is around 72. Gold isat 4748 dollars. Not much change there.
So both Japan and the U.S. are recovering afterthe Iran situation. The market is regainingstability. Last year in April, we had a Trump-typeshock. This year, we did not get that kind ofcollapse. That's a key difference.
市場の回復と今後の警戒事項
But one thing I'm watching carefully is momentum.Both markets returned negative once, but now there's a back to positive territory. The question is,is it real or is it fake? We still don't know whatcould trigger the next move, so I think cautiousis still necessary.
For Nikkei, the key level is 60000 point. Can'tmake it nearly break with it. It's positioningclear enough. That's something we need to watch.
Also starting this April, we have the BOJ ETFselling plan. On a daily basis, the size may notbe huge, but structurally, it's still a newselling pressure.
So from a supply-demand perspective, this issomething to keep an eye on. And regarding thewhole strikes issue, even if we have a chairfight, this is not over. It's not resolved. Themarket has not reset. The risk is still there. It's just being postponed.
Now, changing the topic a bit, space stocks. Ithink the environment is actually quite good forthem. With the Artemis program process progressingwell, the probability of success in the spaceindustry is increasing. In a world with risinggrid geopolitical risks, space becomes moreimportant. Demand is growing.
And with Artemis, the technological credibility ofthe entire sector goes up. So from a semanticperspective, space and defense stocks are worthwatching.
We also need to track where the money is flowingat the individual stock level. Although I think weare still in a wait-and-see phase. Momentum hasrecovered. But we need to stay cautious.
市場分析モデルの公開について
One announcement. About the market model Imentioned before, I have decided to make itpublic. Originally, I planned to make it a paidservice, but instead, I will release the graphopenly. I won't explain how to read them. Each ofyou can interpret them in your own way.
I think making it public creates more value. Morepeople looking at it creates better feedbackgroups. You can access it from the link in theSpotify description. No logging needed.
There are three graphs I won't explain for the represent. But this is the model I use to analyze themarket. So if you listen to this podcast whilelooking at the chart, you will get a deeperunderstanding.
That's all for today. Follow our long-windedmindset of adding a long-winded pattern. See youtomorrow.
