不確実性と72時間ルール
Hello, Today is May 4th, 2025, in Sunday night in Japan, and tomorrow is another holiday.
Futures are open, but the market feels like it's in a quite partial.
That's why I'd like to take this moment to reflect on certain pattern emerging in financial circle,
a rule known as the 72-hour rule, especially around Trump market moving comments.
Bloomberg recently reported that more investors on Wall Street are now deliberately waiting 72 hours after Trump makes any big market comment.
Why? Because in that time, his position might reverse.
His message might change. It's a form of defense, a psychological buffer zone against uncertainty.
But that got me thinking. Why does Trump inject so much uncertainty into the market in the first place?
Is he simply chaotic, or is there something deeper going on?
Here's my hypothesis. Maybe, just maybe, Trump is deliberately creating uncertainty to force people to think.
We live in an era where social media has taken over how we process information.
TikTok, X, Instagram, Facebook, it's no longer about thinking deeply. It's about reacting quickly.
How fast can you press like? How many shares can you take in five minutes?
In a way, that's what I call SNS democracy, a society where your voice is measured not by thought, but by speed and volume.
And in that world, questions die, thinking die.
And when thinking stops, so does the value of time, because to think is to spend time, to pursue, to reflect.
And if society no longer respects the pursuit, that's the act of thinking,
then it starts to lose respect for the very idea of time having value.
And what happens when time has no value?
We lose the meaning of interest rates. Interest, kinryu, is not just a number.
時間価値の低下
It's the price you pay for time.
When you lend money, you are really lending trust in the future.
And if we don't believe the future will be any better or even sustainable,
then we lose the reason to charge or pay interest at all.
So here's the leap. Maybe Trump knows this.
Maybe when he throws the market into chaos, he's actually challenging us.
He's saying, don't believe me blindly. Think for yourself.
Because if people wait 72 hours before acting, then that's 72 hours of thinking.
And in a world where reactions come in miliseconds, 72 hours in eternity is a radical act.
In that sense, the 72-hour rule is not just market wisdom.
It's philosophical resistance against thoughtless society.
And let's go even further.
I believe that when we stop thinking, we devalue it radically.
Thinking itself is a radical.
It's a cognitive effort that requires time, space, patience.
But if we reward speed over depth, then we start telling people, don't think, just react.
That kills the idea of time well spent.
And when time is worthless, we also kill the foundation of investment, productivity, and growth.
That's why I believe Trump's caustic is not just noise.
現代社会における思考の重要性
It's a mirror. It reflects the philosophy of our modern value.
Maybe he's trying to remind us, whether internationally or not,
that the society that stops thinking is a society that stops evaluating.
And in the future, shaped by AI, this becomes even more critical.
AI is not the thinker you are.
AI only accelerates the thoughts you bring into it.
It doesn't ask the question.
It doesn't define the problem.
It just processes what you already have.
So if you don't think, you can't use AI well.
You can't evolve.
And you certainly can't create a future worth bringing.
Maybe Trump knows this too.
And that's why his unpredictability might be the best trigger for deep thinking.
Closing thought.
So when Trump says bye, don't just bye.
Ask, why now? What does he again?
What do I think? Wait 72 hours. Think. Reflect.
That's how we put value back into time.
That's how we put interest back into interest rates.
Thank you for listening. See you tomorrow.
