市場の動向とセンチメント
Hello everyone. Today is July 1st, 2025, 8.28am Japan time.
Let's take a look back at yesterday's market.
The Nikkei closed at 39786 yen, up just 0.06%, so not much movement at all.
Volatility rose slightly, with the Japan Volatility Index at 25.83, staying elevated.
The BR stayed at 15.78, and EPS is at 2521 yen.
In the US, we had non-firm payroll and ISM data, which led to notable moves in the 9th session.
The Nikkei futures even topped 40000 yen,
likely driven by the yen wicking from 143.66 yen to around 145.
Despite talking around 30 or 35% tariff trump, the market did not react dramatically,
suggesting it's not yet seen as a critical asset.
In the US, the S&P rose 0.8%, to 6279 points, and the BIX dropped to 16.38, a sign of strong market sentiment.
It's starting to resemble the overheated conditions seen back in December 2024.
日本とアメリカの市場比較
So clearly, there's a difference in sentiment between Japan and the US, especially in volatility expectations.
Gold is moving gradually, but could break out soon.
Bitcoin jumped again, and now, Hobo is near $1100, showing resilience across risk assets.
But despite the Nikkei price levels keeping up, the Japanese market still feels cautious compared to the US.
Bond yield highlights this US 13-year yield around 4.8%, while Japan's 13-year yield bond just rose to 2.94%.
That spread shows Japan's bond market remains more fragile, given Japan's higher sensitivity to yield.
Further upside for stocks depends on the EPS growth or weak yen.
Otherwise, variations are nearing their selling.
The US, on the other hand, has a structural edge due to its financial and service-driven economy as opposed to Japan's manufacturing-centric core.
Now, something I've been thinking about lately.
I believe rebalancing is a key theme under the Trump administration, especially championed by his advisor, Benson.
He often uses the term rebalancing, and I believe he means it's on a civilizational level.
So I've broken down 10 areas where I think the world needs rebalancing.
1. Energy allocation. AI consumes tremendous electricity. We need to redirect energy away from the old sector and toward innovation.
2. Resource control. Nations are scrambling for rare metals and energy, leading to geopolitical moves in Canada, Ukraine, and the Middle East.
3. Trade structure. The US wants to move away from one-side trade deficits. Global supply chain must become more diversified.
4. Radar rules. As AI takes over cognitive tasks, we must redefine human radar and its value.
5. Urban and rural structure. Overconcentration in megacities breeds fragility, and revitalizing rural areas through agriculture and infrastructure is key.
重要な分野の再評価
6. Finance versus real economy. Excessive focus on high ROE can distort and fat industries drastically benefit humanity. We must rebalance priorities.
7. Social security. As aging accelerates, we need to ask hard questions about health care, dignity in aging, and sustainable systems.
8. Education. Move beyond load and memorization of foster skills that cultivate question-making and real-world reasoning.
9. Geopolitical balance. The G7 is no longer sufficient. Global forums like G20 or even newer multilateral platforms must evolve to include rising powers.
10. Privacy and individual rights. As tech invades all aspects of life, we must reassess and protect personal privacy rights.
These 10 areas are what I believe Vincent is hinting at when he calls for rebalancing. Each represents a fault line in the current global system and perhaps a path forward.
Let's continue exploring these ideas. If you enjoy this, follow me on my content's long path. See you tomorrow.
