Nikkei 100,000 by 2030? Could a New Plaza Accord Spark a Japanese Stock Market Bubble—With the BOJ as the Missing Piece? | Market Commentary, April 13, 2025

Over the weekend, a dovish shift in Trump’s tariff stance sent the Sunday Dow and Sunday DAX soaring—echoing the vibes of a new “Plaza Accord.” Could this spark a second coming of the Japanese stock market bubble?

But one critical piece is still missing: the Bank of Japan’s dovish posture.

Markets move without mercy. They may first pressure the BOJ into a rate hike, engineer a yen-driven recession, and then force the BOJ back into easing. This sequence could unlock the ultimate setup for a historic bull market in Japan.

The question is—are we positioned to ride that narrative?

___

I am Japanese.

This is English version.

サマリー

今日のエピソードでは、日本の株式市場における新たなバブルの可能性と、それに影響を与えるアメリカやドイツの株式市場の動向について詳しく掘り下げています。新しいプラザ合意の形成が日本の株式市場に及ぼす影響について議論し、特に日本銀行の金融政策の重要性が指摘されています。2024年に日本で大きな株価の下落が起こる可能性があり、それに対して日本銀行（BOJ）が再び緩和策を講じることで、80年代のプラザ合意後の状況に似た新たなバブルが引き起こされるかもしれません。このエピソードでは、2030年までに日経平均株価が10万に達する可能性を探りつつ、新たなプラザ合意が日本の株式市場にバブルを引き起こす要因として考察されています。

00:00

Hello, today is April 13, 2025, 10.30pm in Japan. Guten Abend.

I said hello in German because I heard someone from Germany is listening. I studied German in university, but I can only sing greetings.

日本の株式市場のバブルの可能性

Today, I want to go deeper into yesterday's topic about Japan's number one and new bubble story.

This weekend, US and German stock markets already started to bonus back. The Sunday Dow rose about plus 1.66%, and German DAX rose over plus 3%.

I think one reason is some positive comment from Trump over the weekend.

Trump is not afraid to act boldly, and if things go wrong, he just changes his opinion and says, I made the market go up. That's his style.

We must get used to this during the next 4 years.

Now, let's talk about Japan.

Yesterday, I said Trump tariffs might lead a weaker dollar. Many countries might follow this weak currency policy as a trade-off.

This could become a new version of the Plaza Accord like what happened in the 1980s before Japanese bubble.

But I felt something was missing in this idea.

For a bubble to really grow, we need monetary easing from the central bank.

Right now, the Bank of Japan is going the opposite direction. They might even raise interest rates the next meeting in May.

So, how can the BOJ be pushed to ease policy?

Here's my wide idea.

1. Trump tariffs cause market to cool down.

日本銀行と株式市場の動向

2. But with positive news, stock price quickly bonus back before May.

3. BOJ see this and says, OK, let's raise rate.

4. But after that, in summer, maybe August, a big crash happens like August 2024.

5. BOJ panic and says, we must save the market.

6. Then, BOJ decided to ease again just like after the original Plaza Accord in the 1980s.

So, the cycle is tariffs, quick rebound, rate hike, crash, easing again, bubble starts.

If this happens, we could next Japan bubble.

But for that, two things are key.

1. A strong yen caused by tariffs.

2. BOJ turning to easing again.

This crash could be necessary step like a ritual to force BOJ into easing.

I know this sounds crazy, but market are often cool, but seems unlikely often happens.

So, we need to prepare for even wild scenarios. I think this could happen in 2025.

If BOJ rise late in May, market crash in summer, and BOJ change course in June, we might really sent a new bubble, Japan as No.1 again.

So, this is my personal story, and I want to record it before I forget it.

Summary, if we want to see a new Japan bubble, we may first need a strong yen and temporary crash.

This could lead BOJ to ease again, and may start the next big wave in Japanese stocks.

Thank you for listening. See you tomorrow.