トランプとの関係改善
Hi, This is Yaho. I'm a Micro Option Trader. It's 9 AM on July 23, 2025, Japan Time.
I'd like to dig into the latest update on the Trump Ties.
Originally, Japan was set to face a 25% tariff starting August 1st, but it's now been reduced to 15%. That's a 10% cut, pretty significant.
If we look at the U.S. imports from Japan, and they total about 20 trillion yen, so this tariff reduction gives Japan a roughly 2 trillion yen positive impact.
On the flip side, Japan has agreed to invest $55 billion in the U.S., which is about 8 trillion yen per year over 4 years, or 18 trillion yen total.
At first glance, the investment outweighed the tariff benefit, but since it's investment, not just the cost, it should yield return, assuming a 5% return, that's about 1 trillion yen in annual income, making the deal potentially quite reasonable.
Japan is a credit nation with large foreign reserves, around 200 trillion yen. Roughly 18% of that is in dollars, so about 160 trillion yen.
Spending 18 trillion yen over 4 years is not trivial, but it's not unmanageable, is it?
Especially if they tap into reserves or purchase more dollars. That, in turn, could drive yen weakness, a possible side effect.
Now, what kind of investments are we taking about?
Most likely, there'll be infrastructure, energy, facilities, AI data centers, things with lasting value, not just short-term consumption.
It's what I'd call old economy investment, its strategic importance for both nations.
The key question now is how the funding will be structured.
But overall, the deal looks amateurly beneficial.
From geopolitical lens, the U.S. gets direct investment support, while Japan gets some tariff relief and strategic economic influence.
日本の関税政策の展望
Following the announcement, the Nikkei Indigo spiked up to around 4-0, 4-0-0 again, but has since pulled back a bit.
I'd say we're in wait-and-see mode as we look for further details.
There's also news of Prime Minister Ishiba's step down, with discussion involving former Prime Minister about what comes next.
So this trade deal might be a turning point, not just economically, but politically as well.
That's all for today. If you like this content, long put my content. See you tomorrow.
