AI Hopes and Global Uncertainty Favor Japan — The Nikkei Faces the PER 18 Barrier｜2025/9/18

With AI growth expectations and global uncertainty driving capital into Japan, the Nikkei now confronts the critical PER 18 level. EPS recovery will determine if the rally can carry further.

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ニッケイ指数がPER18の障壁に近づいており、ABSは2500に回復しています。AIの影響で、日本の株式市場ではEPS成長への期待が高まり、投資家は株式を優先しています。AIの標準化が進む中、日本企業の価値が上昇し、米国の不確実性の中で資本が日本に流入しています。日本市場のPER18の壁を前に、AIへの期待と世界的不確実性がどのように影響を与えるかについて考察されています。

ニッケイ指数の動向

Hi, This is Yaho. I'm MacOptionTrader. Today is September 18th, 2025, 646 AM Japan Time.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed at 44790 AM, that is a small drop of about 0.25%.

It feels like just a bit of adjustment after the strong running.

We are now hovering around the 45000 level, right at the 18 times PER wall.

Yesterday's number was PER 18.06 and ABS at 2480 AM.

ABS had recovered quite a bit, almost back to the 2500 AM mark.

That's going to be an important line to watch.

The 13-year GDP yield is at 3.25%. Meanwhile, the divided yield on equities is 1.97%.

So stocks are still favored because investors expect an additional 2 or 3% upside from price gains.

That might make equities more attractive than bonds.

Even if a long edge lies further.

The market moves is clear. Investors are counting on EPS growth of at least 2 or 3%.

These AI-driven growth equities expectations are adding even more to the story.

日本経済への影響

Looking at the US market, the S&P is 6600 points down 0.1%. The BIX is at 15.72, basically unchanged.

Gold fell to $3660, down about 0.9%. With EVZ at 17.41. Bitcoins is steady around $115,400.

So overall, both Japan and the US are just in mild adjustment. The rally is still intact.

And Japan continues to be in the spotlight.

In mid-US certainty around Trump policies, capital is flowing defensively into Japan.

And as I have said before, AI-driven standardization is pushing up the value of Japan-led companies.

The question now is how long this rally can run, and where the next trading opportunity will appear.

For now, it makes sense to ride the rally, but be ready to shoot when the chance comes.

That's it all for today. Follow me with a long good image in mind. See you tomorrow.