日本市場と米国市場の概況
Hello everyone, this is Yaho. I'm an Option Trader. Today is October 9, 2026. It's just after 8p.m. here in Japan.
Today, the October SQ was confirmed. So first, I'dlike to take a quick look at the markets.
And then, I want to share some thoughts about AI,SI, the future of the economy, and what willbecome valuable in the years ahead. Let's getstarted.
First, let's look at the Japan market. The Nikkeifutures closed at 69031 yen today, and the OctoberSQ was set at 68465 yen.
Last month, the market fell to around 63003 yen,but since then, we have seen a rebound of roughly8%.
So the Nikkei has recovered quickly, strongly, buthere's something interesting.
Trading value was around 6.3 trillion yen today,and not long ago, it was approaching 10 trillionyen.
So trading activity has slowed down quite a bit.
And total unrealized gains in the Japanese stockmarket have also been shrinking.
This suggests the market may not be as strong asthe headline index suggests.
The Nikkei volatility index is now at 30.14. Ithad fallen to around 15 at one point, but it'sback above 13.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei PER ratio is 17.37, andearnings per share have reached 3974 yen.
That's getting very close to 4,000 yen.
Return on equity ROE is also improving, reaching10.94%.
So corporate profitability is getting stronger,but stock prices are not rising as aggressively asbefore.
To me, this may suggest a change in the Japanesemarket environment.
Interest rates are another important factor.
The dollar-yen exchange rate is still around 1.57yen, so the yen remains relatively weak.
And Japan's 13-year GGBL has climbed to around 4%.
With the Bank of Japan moving toward higherinterest rates, investors are gradually acceptinga new reality.
Japan is becoming a country where interest ratesactually matter again.
Now let's look at the United States.
The S&P 500 is around 7,765 points, and the PIX isat 15.41.
Compared with Japan, the U.S. market seems to bereally gaining some strength.
However, the U.S. midterm election is coming soon,so I think we may have to wait until after theelections to see a clear direction.
Gold is trading at around $4133 per ounce, andBitcoin has recovered about $8000, reaching about$81715.
But Nissan looks particularly strong at themoment.
Overall, my impression is that Japan may beentering a period of consolidation.
NHK recently reached around 71000 yen, but it hasstruggled to move much higher.
We may be entering a trading range somewherebetween 60000 and 7000 yen.
Meanwhile, the U.S. market could start to regainmomentum.
Especially after the midterm elections, that's mycurrent view of the market.
AI・SIとドメイン認識
Now let's move on to today's main topic.
Rise of the AI, SI, and Domain Awareness.
Recently, I've been thinking a lot of how quicklyartificial intelligence, super intelligence, isdeveloping.
Chad's GPT was introduced in 2022, and in justfour years, the progress has been extraordinary.
I can feel this change in my own daily work.
For example, I develop financial models.
I turn those models into the service.
I have the data, analyze the market, and improvemy systems.
And now I can do much of this with just asmartphone and Chad's GPT.
It's not completely automated, but compared with afew years ago, the difference is enormous.
This experience has changed the way I think abouta lot of humans.
Recently, I've become very interested in a conceptcalled domain awareness.
Simply put, domain awareness means understandingwhat is happening in a particular environment.
It could be the financial market, it could bespace, it could be national security, or it couldbe the environment.
In every case, we collect information,understanding the situation, and decide what to donext.
And I believe this process is one of the mostimportant functions in our economy.
Think about how much money the world alreadyspends on understanding situations.
Financial data, market intelligence, satellitemonitoring, cybersecurity, environmentalmonitoring.
These are all different forms of domain awareness.
And I believe this market will continue to grow,but AISI is going to change how it works.
SI can collect the data, SI can organizeinformation, SI can identify patterns, and SI caneven help us interpret what those patterns mean.
In other words, SI will take over more and more ofthe process of understanding the world.
But there's one important step that remains,decision making.
Once we understand the situation, someone stillhas to decide what to do.
And more importantly, someone has to take therisk.
For example, in the financial market, SI canidentify potential crash.
It can estimate the probabilities.
It can show us how valuable the market might be.
But someone still has to decide whether to buy orsell, how much money to risk, and when to takeaction.
That decision comes with responsibility, and Ibelieve this is where human value will becomeincreasingly important.
As SI makes information cheaper, the ability tomake decisions and take risks could become morevulnerable.
That's one of the biggest changes I expect in thecoming years.
AIデフレと2029年の転換点
Okay, next, AI deflation in the year 2029.
Now let's think about the broader economic impact.
I believe AI, SI will create a powerful wave ofdeflation, not necessarily across the entireeconomy,
but especially in the service that can beautomated or reproduced digitally.
As ASI becomes more capable, the most of theproviding those services should continue to fall.
And this raises an interesting question.
When will this transformation become truthfullyvisible?
One way to think about it is through businesscycle.
Let's use a seven-year cycle as a simpleassumption.
JBT arrived in 2022, and seven years later bringsus to 2029.
Of course, this is just a hypothesis, but I think2029 could be an important turning point.
By then, AI and SI may become deeply integratedinto everyday life, and we may begin to see largechanges in employment.
Some jobs will disappear, and others will betransformed.
And new industries will recreate newopportunities.
The important question is this.
One SI can perform more and more tasks, but willremain vulnerable for humans.
One answer, as I mentioned earlier, is the abilityto make decisions and take risks.
非移転性が生む価値
But I think there's another important concept, andthat's what I want to focus on today.
Not transferability.
Why non-transferability matters?
What do I mean by non-transferability?
Basically, I'm talking about value that cannoteasily be transformed from one person or place toanother.
Let me give you an example.
Money is transferable.
You can send money to someone.
You can give it away.
You can pass it on to the next generation.
But what about someone's personality, their way ofthinking, their personal judgment, and theirexperience of making a decision over the manyyears?
Those things are much harder to transfer.
You can copy information.
You can read someone's idea.
But you cannot easily reproduce the person behindthose ideas, their history, their instincts, theirunique way of seeing the world.
I think these qualities could become much morevulnerable in the AI era.
And the same principle may apply to physicalassets, especially real estate.
And infrastructure.
Think about a city.
A successful city is not just a collection ofbuildings.
It's the result of a decade of investment.
Transportation system, business, communications,culture, and the relationship between all thesethings.
You cannot simply copy an entire city and move itsomewhere else.
That makes its location and accumulated value verydifficult to replace.
And I think this is going to matter much more inthe future.
不動産・インフラ・Starlink
Real estate and infrastructure is an AI era.
For many years, real estate companies in Japanhave not always received much attention from stockmarket investors.
Think about the companies like Mitsubishi or Mitsubishi Estate.
These companies have spent decades developingcities and creating a vulnerable environment.
They have contributed enormously to Japaneseeconomic development.
But compared with high-growth technologycompanies,
real estate stocks have often been treated as aless exciting investment.
I think that the perception could change.
Here's why.
AI will make many digital services cheaper.
Someware can be copied.
Information can be reproduced.
And many routing services can be automated.
But a vulnerable location cannot easily be reproduced.
Neither can major transportation networks orestablished urban infrastructure systems.
The more digital services become commodities,
the more important these physical and location-specific assets may become.
And this is not limited to real estate.
Think about Starlink.
Its satellite communication network requiresenormous investment, infrastructure, and technicalcapabilities.
You cannot simply reproduce the network overnight.
It has a scale and physical presence that areextremely difficult to replace.
So I think infrastructure like this could becomeincreasingly important.
Of course, non-transferability does notautomatically guarantee higher profit.
But when an asset is difficult to reproduce andpeople depend on it,
it may gain greater economic power.
And that's the key point.
AI may completely change the way we measureeconomic value.
For the past two decades, we have focused heavilyon efficiency.
How quickly, how cheaply, how easily.
But in the AI era, efficiency may no longer beenough to create competitive advantage
because AI itself will make efficiency widelyavailable.
So perhaps the more important question will be
what cannot be easily copied, what cannot beeasily moved,
and what cannot be easily replaced.
I think these questions could become central toinvestment decisions.
Cyberpunk 2077と人格の価値
Cyberpunk 2077 and Banner of Personality.
Recently, I have also been playing the video gamecalled Cyberpunk.
And I know I'm a little late to the game,
but I've become really interested in its vision ofthe future.
The game takes place in the year 2077,
and it presents a worldwide dominated by powerfulcompanies.
Military technologies, pharmaceutical companies,
cyber security, advanced network, and digitaltechnology.
These industries have enormous influence over thesociety.
One of the most interesting ideas in the game issomething called intellect.
Its technology comes to a personality and consumesdigital data.
I find this concept fascinating because it raisesa very important question.
What happens when human personality cells becomethe data?
In a world, AI can produce knowledge andinformation,
but makes one individual unique.
I think the answer may still be the personalhistory.
The experience, the decision, and the way allthose things come together to create uniqueidentity.
Even if personality can be stored digitally,
the original experience behind the personalitycannot simply be recreated.
And perhaps that's where personal value will comefrom,
not just what someone knows, but how they think,
how they judge a situation, and what they chooseto do.
In a way, a personality itself could become animportant economic asset,
and I think this idea connects directly to thefuture of AI.
AIが進める経済のグレートリセット
The Great Reset Driven by AI
If we look back at the period from 2000 to 2020,
much of the global economy was driven byefficiency.
Digital technology made service faster,
globalization made production cheaper,
and some software made business easier to scale.
For 20 years, efficiency was one of the mostimportant sources of economic value.
But now AI is beginning to change the system,
where intelligence and information processingbecome cheaper.
The value of many services could fall.
At the same time, things that are difficult toreproduce may become more vulnerable.
Physical infrastructure, unique location,established networks,
personal judgment, and individual identity.
In other words, AI can create a completely neweconomic value.
There's a phase of the Great Reset.
It's sometimes associated with conspiracytheories.
But I think a difficult kind of the Great Resetcould actually happen,
not through some hidden program, but throughartificial intelligence,
super intelligence.
As I said, the way we value business assets andeven human capability.
And for me, the central concept is non-transferability.
Can this value be copied? Can it be moved? Can itbe replaced?
Or is it something unique that cannot easily betransferred?
I think this distinction will become increasinglyimportant.
And it could help us understand which industries,
companies, and individuals will become morevulnerable in the future.
So that's the idea I've been thinking aboutrecently.
AI, SI will make many things cheaper.
But it may also make certain things much morevulnerable.
And the key may be whether that value is transferable or not.
That's my perspective for Great Reset driven byAI.
Thank you for listening. See you next time.