【2/19】米製造業11カ月ぶり高成長 耐久財受注の裏に隠れた投資ブーム

2月19日発表の米国鉱工業生産指数は前月比+0.7%と予想を大幅に上回り、製造業生産は11カ月ぶりの高い伸びを記録しました。耐久財受注はヘッドラインこそマイナスですが、輸送除くコア指標は9カ月連続増加。AI関連設備投資の加速とFRB利下げ期待の後退について詳しく解説します。

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・鉱工業生産が予想+0.4%を大幅に上回る+0.7%、製造業は11カ月ぶり高成長

・設備稼働率76.2%に改善も長期平均を3.2ポイント下回り成長余地を示唆

・耐久財受注マイナス1.4%の内訳、航空機受注急落とコア指標9カ月連続増の明暗

・ハイテク製造業+8.9%、ビジネス機器+9.4%が示すAI投資ブームの実態

・コア資本財出荷Q4年率+8.2%増、リショアリング政策の効果が顕在化か

・製造業生産増加と雇用減少が同時進行する「生産性パラドックス」の深層

・FRB利下げ期待が3月から6月以降へ後退、ノーランディングシナリオの現実味

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・FRB G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

・U.S. Census Bureau Durable Goods Report

https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

・Reuters "US manufacturing output posts biggest gain in 11 months in January"

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-posts-biggest-152253674.html

・Bloomberg "US Industrial Production Posts Biggest Gain in Nearly a Year"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-18/us-industrial-production-increases-by-most-in-nearly-a-year

・First Trust "Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in January"

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/2/18/industrial-production-increased-0.7percent-in-january

・First Trust "New Orders for Durable Goods Fell 1.4% in December"

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/2/18/new-orders-for-durable-goods-fell-1.4percent-in-december

・FinancialContent "American Industry Surges in January as No-Landing Economic Scenario Gains Traction"

https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-2-18-american-industry-surges-in-january-as-no-landing-economic-scenario-gains-traction

・Deloitte "2026 Semiconductor Industry Outlook"

https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/technology/technology-media-telecom-outlooks/semiconductor-industry-outlook.html

・SEMI "Global Semiconductor Equipment Sales Projected to Reach a Record of $156 Billion in 2027"

https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/global-semiconductor-equipment-sales-projected-to-reach-a-record-of-156-billion-dollars-in-2027-semi-reports

・RSM "Market Minute: Manufacturing job losses continue"

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-manufacturing-job-losses-continue/

・Kansas City Fed "The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy"

https://www.kansascityfed.org/speeches/the-economic-outlook-and-monetary-policy-2026/

・iShares "Fed Outlook 2026: Rate Forecasts and Fixed Income Strategies"

https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast

・U.S. Department of the Treasury "Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee"

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0376

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#聞く経済ニュース #米国製造業 #鉱工業生産 #FRB金融政策 #AI投資

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