【3/19】貿易黒字573億円の死角 ホルムズ封鎖の影響が迫る日本経済

2月貿易収支は予想外の573億円黒字。半導体輸出25%増が牽引も対米・対中は減少。日銀は0.75%据え置き決定。ホルムズ封鎖で原油100ドル超の中、好調な経済指標の先に潜むエネルギーリスクを海外メディア報道から多角的に分析します。

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・予想外の貿易黒字573億円 半導体輸出25%増とASEAN躍進が支えた輸出構造の変化

・対米マイナス8%対中マイナス10.9% 二大輸出先の同時縮小とトランプ関税の深化

・製造業PMI53.0は3年9カ月ぶり高水準 鉱工業生産との乖離が示す需給ギャップ

・日銀0.75%据え置き 高田委員の連続反対とイラン情勢に揺れる利上げ判断

・コア機械受注Q1見通しマイナス4.5% 設備投資モメンタムに黄信号

・ホルムズ封鎖で原油126ドル 日本のエネルギー安保が直面する1970年代以来の試練

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・Reuters「Japan exports rise 4.2% in February from year earlier」

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/japan-exports-rise-42-in-february-from-year-earlier-4567255

・Bloomberg「BOJ Holds Rates Steady as Iran Conflict Clouds Inflation Outlook」

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/boj-holds-rates-steady-as-iran-conflict-clouds-inflation-outlook

・Bloomberg「Japan's Export Growth Slows on China Holidays and U.S. Tariffs Impact」

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-18/japan-s-export-growth-slows-as-chinese-holidays-weigh-on-demand

・Bloomberg「Yen Holds Gain Against Dollar After BOJ Keeps Rates Steady」

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/yen-holds-gain-against-dollar-after-boj-holds-rates-steady

・CNBC「Japan exports beat forecasts with 4.2% growth in February, but shipments to China and U.S. slump」

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/japan-february-exports-growth-china-us-shipments-boj-trump-takaichi.html

・CNBC「Bank of Japan raises economic growth forecasts ahead of snap election, holds rates at 0.75%」

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/23/boj-rate-decision-snap-election-takaichi-gdp.html

・AP通信「Japan records trade surplus as export growth balances out weak China demand」

https://www.kark.com/news/business/ap-japan-records-trade-surplus-as-export-growth-balances-out-weak-china-demand/

・FX.co

https://www.fx.co/en/forex-news/2938315

・Japan Times

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/18/japan-february-export-growth-slows/

・Japan Times

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/16/economy/oil-release-japan/

・Investing.com

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/boj-preview-march-rates-on-hold-hawkish-outlook-in-focus-4567407

・investingLive

https://investinglive.com/centralbank/bojs-ueda-says-inflation-rising-toward-2-target-ahead-of-march-18-19-meeting-20260317/

・Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4883630-boj-meeting-preview-growth-inflation-balancing-act-as-usd-jpy-nears-159-45161-95

・SEISANZAI Japan

https://seisanzai-japan.com/article/p6100/

・JILAF

https://www.jilaf.or.jp/en/news/20260310-6306/

・内閣府 経済社会総合研究所

https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/stat/juchu/2025/2512juchu-e.html

・S&P Global

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6bf4b968d4f64cf68179409bb183fb6a

・日本銀行

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2601a.pdf

・Al Jazeera

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/16/japan-begins-release-of-oil-reserves-as-iran-war-sparks-energy-crisis

・Al Jazeera

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/15/strategic-oil-release-may-calm-markets-but-cannot-fix-hormuz-disruption

・World Economic Forum

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/03/the-global-price-tag-of-war-in-the-middle-east/

・日本経済研究センター

https://www.jcer.or.jp/english/japanese-economy-update_march-2026

・TIME

https://time.com/article/2026/03/16/us-israel-iran-war-trump-asia-economy-oil-energy-inflation-recession/

・Trading Economics

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate