【3/4】中国PMI公式49.0vs民間52.1 数値の乖離を解説

3月4日発表の中国製造業PMIで公式と民間指数に3.1ポイントの乖離が発生。国有企業は収縮、民間輸出企業は5年ぶり高水準の理由とは。両会開幕と五ヶ年計画の政策的含意も解説します。

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・公式PMI49.0 vs RatingDog52.1 異例の3.1ポイント乖離が示す意味

・「二重トラック経済」の出現 国有企業と民間輸出企業の構造的分断

・中国経済統計の信頼性 NBERとセントルイス連銀の多角的評価

・新規輸出受注が2020年9月以来最速の伸び 米中通商環境の変化

・両会開幕と第15次五ヶ年計画 GDP目標4.5-5%引き下げ観測

・サービス業PMI56.7で3年ぶり高水準 春節消費の実態

・Goldman Sachsが予測する中国成長率と日本経済への影響

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・CNBC - China's factory activity slumps more than expected in February

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/china-factory-activity-february-pmi.html

・ING THINK - Divergent Chinese PMIs suggest resilient external demand

https://think.ing.com/snaps/divergence-in-february-china-pmi-data-suggests-resilient-external-but-slow-domestic-demand

・ActionForex - China PMIs show two-speed economy as official data contracts

https://www.actionforex.com/live-comments/631913-china-pmis-show-two-speed-economy-as-official-data-contracts/

・Reuters via US News - China's factory activity expands at quickest pace in over 5 years

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-03-03/chinas-factory-activity-expands-at-quickest-pace-in-over-5-years-private-pmi-shows

・People's Daily Online - China's non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5 in February

http://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0304/c90000-20431210.html

・Asia Society Policy Institute - What to Watch at China's Two Sessions in 2026

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/what-watch-chinas-two-sessions-2026

・Goldman Sachs - China's Economy Expected to Grow in 2026 Amid Surging Exports

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/chinas-economy-expected-to-grow-in-2026-amid-surging-exports

・St. Louis Fed - China's Official Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection?

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors

・NBER - Official Statistics Overstate China's Growth Rate

https://www.nber.org/digest/aug19/official-statistics-overstate-chinas-growth-rate

・CGTN - What to expect from China's 2026 Two Sessions

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-03-03/What-to-watch-at-China-s-Two-Sessions-as-new-five-year-plan-begins-1LdeW8n7o3K/p.html

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#中国PMI #中国経済 #両会 #製造業 #聞く経済ニュース

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