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Hi, this is Yaho. I'm a micro-option trader. Todayis April 18, 2026, 10 am Japan time.
Today, I'll go over the market, touch on the FSVreport, and also talk about geopoliticalmovements, especially what's happening around theStraits of Hormuz.
First, the Japanese market. The Nikkei closed at58476 on Friday, futures traded at 59000.
It looks like we also reached 60000 in the nightsession.
Broad ED has calmed down quite a bit, now at 28.4.PLS is 20.55, and EPS has recovered to 845.
From a chart perspective, it looks a bit like adouble tap.
EPS is also showing a similar pattern, so that'ssomething we should keep an eye on.
That said, momentum is still very strong.
Now about the Straits of Hormuz, information isstill mixed, but overall, it seems like things aremoving toward a reopening, or at least easing theblockade, and the market is reacting positively tothat.
Looking at the US, it's also very strong. The S&Pis at 7126, and basically at all-time high.
Move index is at 65.69, so the bond market isrelatively calm.
VIX is at 17.48, so overall, both Japan and the USare in a very strong environment.
Gold is back up to 4831, and the GBZ is at 28.95,so variety there is also sellable.
We are seeing a strong rebound across the board,but in the environment, the FSV report came out.
Let's briefly go through that and connect it backto Hormuz.
SFCV is still focused on leverage and liquiditysupporting the market.
In particular, they are highlighting the repomarket.
That's where investors use bonds as collateral toborrow cash, and then use that cash to buy riskasset.
This mechanism is actually supporting the currentrally, but at the same time, it makes the systemfragile.
Because if the bond market moves, everything canunwind quickly.
We have seen this before during the Trump taxcheck. Bond volatility triggered a broader marketmove.
Same thing in August 2024 with the Bank of Japancheck.
So structurally, market crash tend to start fromthe bonds.
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Right now, move is calm, but the question is, isit sellable or is it just quantity ratio?
Now, back to the strength of Hormuz.
Previously, Iran temporarily blocked it andtriggered a market crash in February.
But now, the subject is shifting from Iran to theUnited States.
And this is very important.
Because the market reaction completely changeddepending on who is controlling it.
If Iran blocks it, it's an energy shock and doesbearish shortages.
But if the U.S. controls or restricts it, itbecomes a deliberate supply constraint.
That creates inflation pressure, which can offsetAI-driven deflation.
And in this case, it can actually be bearish forequities.
So the contrary is likely the market pricing inthat the U.S. is now the main actor controlling Hormuz.
However, there is a flip side.
If the U.S. lifts restrictions, that couldaccelerate AI deflation.
And we need to ask, is that really bearish for equities?
That's something we need to watch carefully.
At deeper level, the Hormuz issue is highlightinga fundamental problem.
Energy supply constraints, it reminds us howdependent we are on oil and geopolitics.
And this is where the story connects to space.
On Earth, energy is constrained by gravity and theatmosphere.
But in the space, those constraints are removed.
Especially for solar power, efficiency increasesdramatically.
So as space development progresses, energyconstraints get weaker.
We move closer to something like free energy.
And ultimately leads to deflationary pressure.
As technology advances, the cost across the globedeclines.
Eventually, even the value of currency itselfcould weaken.
And in the long term, if we extend human lifespanor slow aging, even the value of time couldcompress.
And it does happen assets like real estate, whichare essentially buying time, could lose value.
But this process does not happen all at once.
Software and digital assets will deflate first.
Physical assets will follow later.
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So in the current phase, real estate mainly lookslike they are in a bubble relative to everythingelse.
The key is to understand the timing.
How long does each asset enter deflationarypressure phase?
In the sense, space is the center of long-termstructural change.
And geopolitical tension actually oscillates theneed for it.
For now, the market is strong.
But we are also seeing the double top of 10.
So we need to stay cautious.
That's it all for today.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Thank you.
