Around 4 PM on May 2, 2025.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 36,831, up 1%, wrapping up the week in what appeared to be a risk-on mood.
However, a closer look reveals a different story: individual stocks declined, gold prices rebounded, and there was a large-scale purchase of far out-of-the-money put options worth over 100 million yen.
Meanwhile, trade negotiations with the U.S. ended without clarity, and with bond markets appearing calm again, there’s a chance the Trump administration could once more stir volatility.
Is this “quiet now” just the beginning of a genuine bull market?
Or is it the calm before an avalanche?
What risk-off signals lie hidden beneath this surface-level optimism?
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サマリー
日本のマーケットは穏やかですが、リスクへの備えが必要な状況が続いています。