【3/31】東京CPI2年ぶり鈍化 その裏に潜むインフレの正体

東京コアCPIが2年ぶり低水準に、しかし補助金を剥がすと景色は一変。海外主要アナリストが見せかけのディスインフレに警告。

noteで詳細テキストレポート公開中！

https://note.com/kiku_keizai

・東京CPI3月速報 コア1.7%に鈍化、コアコア2.3%の乖離

・エネルギー補助金の効果を侵食し始めた原油高の構図

・鉱工業生産2月マイナス2.1% 自動車減産と製造業PMIとの乖離

・小売業販売額が予想大幅下振れ 中東紛争前から脆弱だった消費

・春闘賃上げ5〜7%でも埋まらない実質購買力のギャップ

・日銀4月利上げ観測 市場は70%織り込みも二面リスクが壁に

・植田総裁の円安警戒発言と海外アナリストの利上げ時期予測

Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/tokyo-cpi-cools-to-slowest-in-two-years-as-food-cost-gains-ease

Reuters via MarketScreener https://www.marketscreener.com/news/core-inflation-in-japan-s-capital-slows-but-war-driven-price-jump-looms-ce7e51d9de80f425

CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/japan-cpi-inflation-february-.html

RTTNews https://www.rttnews.com/3635424/japan-industrial-production-slipped-2-1-in-february.aspx

RTTNews https://www.rttnews.com/3635440/japan-retail-sales-slip-0-2-in-february.aspx

ActionForex https://www.actionforex.com/live-comments/635215-japan-tokyo-cpi-core-weakens-to-1-7-as-energy-subsidies-drag-inflation-lower/

ActionForex https://www.actionforex.com/live-comments/635217-japan-factory-output-contracts-as-auto-weakness-weighs-outlook-remains-uncertain/

Reuters via Times Live https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/world/2026-03-30-japan-intensifies-threats-to-prop-up-yen-as-boj-eyes-inflation/

Japan Today https://japantoday.com/category/business/major-japan-firms-offer-large-pay-hikes-in-spring-negotiations

Japan Times https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/06/economy/rengo-shunto-pay-hike/

Goldman Sachs https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2026/01/06/eefdf592-d197-40da-a74b-dd316dbea9ee.html

KFGO https://kfgo.com/2026/03/18/boj-set-to-hold-rates-steady-as-middle-east-conflict-muddles-outlook/

Equiti https://www.equiti.com/jo-en/news/breaking-data/boj-walks-a-tightrope-between-yen-weakness-and-inflation-risk/

EBC Financial Group https://www.ebc.com/forex/bank-of-japan-march-decision-hold-rates-but-for-how-long