【3/28】米国債はもう安全資産ではないのか 悪い金利上昇の正体

米10年債利回り4.41%、8カ月ぶり高水準。リスクオフで債券が売られる悪い金利上昇のメカニズムを解説。エネルギーショック・財政赤字・外国人需要の減退・FRB議長交代が複合する米国債市場の構造変化と日本への波及リスクを分析します。

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・米10年債4.41%到達 年内利上げ確率50%への劇的反転

・供給ショックが壊す安全資産の常識 需要危機との決定的な違い

・IEAが史上最大と形容したホルムズ海峡封鎖とエネルギーインフレ

・米国債残高39兆ドル突破 戦費2000億ドル追加要求と財政赤字の構造化

・中国の保有制限指示とBRICs売却トレンド 需要構造が変わる米国債市場

・FRBパウエル議長退任とWarsh指名 金融政策の独立性に市場が問う信認

・英国債5%突破の衝撃 日本が直面するエネルギーと評価損の二重リスク

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・Trading Economics

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield

・CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/us-treasury-10-year-bonds-safe-haven-gilts-g7-bunds-oats-price-sell-off-yield-iran-war.html

・CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/uk-exchange-nesletter-gilts-bonds-iran-war-inflation.html

・CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/iran-israel-us-war-middle-east-conflict-oil-gas-lng-surge-central-banks-inflation-risk.html

・CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/hegseth-iran-war-budget.html

・IEA

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026

・Fortune

https://fortune.com/2026/03/21/iran-war-asia-energy-crisis-hormuz-oil-lng-stagflation/

・Fortune

https://fortune.com/2026/02/09/china-investors-nervy-buyers-treasuries-bric/

・Fortune

https://fortune.com/2026/03/16/us-debt-vs-corporate-bonds-record-supply-treasury-yields-iran-war-costs-deficit/

・Fortune

https://fortune.com/2026/03/11/daily-tab-iran-war-debt-crisis/

・Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/china-urges-banks-to-limit-holdings-of-us-treasuries-citing-market-volatility

・Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/war-spending-sinks-long-term-government-bonds-on-deficit-worries

・RSM

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-the-treasury-market-is-signaling-stress/

・FinancialContent

https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-24-us-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-437-inflation-and-geopolitical-risks-reshape-markets

・TIME

https://time.com/article/2026/03/19/united-states-national-debt-trillions-iran-war/

・Morningstar UK

https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/bonds/uk-government-bond-yields-spike-iran-war-upends-interest-rate-outlook

・State Street

https://www.statestreet.com/hk/en/insights/the-great-repricing-us-treasuries

・The Hill

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5802563-feds-interest-rate-outlook-oil-prices/

・Advisor Perspectives

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/03/07/long-trusted-haven-trades-failing-gold-treasuries-fall

・World Economic Forum

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/03/the-global-price-tag-of-war-in-the-middle-east/

・Syfe

https://www.syfe.com/magazine/why-safe-havens-arent-working-and-where-to-invest-instead/

・Fair Observer

https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/iran-triggers-hormuz-chokepoint-crisis-and-risk-of-global-stagflation/

・Reason

https://reason.com/2026/03/26/how-will-congress-fund-a-300-billion-war-with-iran/

・International Banker

https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/will-us-bond-markets-continue-to-confound-expectations-in-2026/

・Trustnet

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13471932/bond-managers-are-backing-gilts-after-the-sell-off-sparked-by-the-iran-conflict

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#聞く経済ニュース #米国債 #金利上昇 #スタグフレーション #イラン戦争

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